Scenarios
+ New scenarioHe who controls the spice… Iran attacks on UAE refineries
Here's what Dune gets right that most war-gaming misses: the spice doesn't stop flowing because the enemy is destroyed. It stops because holding the chokepoint becomes more costly than negotiating its price. Iran will shift from direct counter attacks to oil infrastructure.
armchair_emperor · 5/6/2026 · 4d left · 0 comments
Backfire thesis, Iran's nuclear program will be ramped up
The core paradox: a strike intended to neutralize Iran's nuclear program could (a) politically legitimize the program domestically, (b) accelerate it by proving deterrence is the only real guarantee of sovereignty, and (c) trigger a regional cascade where every major actor concludes the lesson is get the bomb before they come for you.
armchair_emperor · 4/29/2026 · 333d left · 0 comments
MAGA Christian Nationlist - Catholic Turf War
# Prediction The MAGA Coalition Fractures Along Religious Lines. The turf war accelerates an already-visible crack inside MAGA itself. Many conservative evangelicals don't consider Catholics "real Christians," and they're already irate at conservative Catholics for fracturing the culture war coalition. MAGA Catholics like Vance and Bannon are caught in an impossible position — their political tribe is now attacking their spiritual home. Traditionalist Catholics who don't have another political home face "complete political homelessness" if the rift deepens. The White House Faith Office becomes a de facto arbiter of who counts as a "real" Christian, which alienates not just Catholics but any Protestant denomination that won't bend the knee. Pope Leo Becomes the Global Anti-MAGA Focal Point By picking a fight with the Vatican, MAGA accidentally handed Leo a megaphone. MAGA's support among Catholics has dropped below 50 percent while Pope Leo enjoys surging popularity. The Iran War Gets Theologically Delegitimized Three American cardinals went on 60 Minutes to underscore the pope's message that the Iran war is not a just war, invoking 1,000 years of Catholic just war doctrine. This isn't op-ed territory — it's a formal doctrinal position from the institutional Church. # Background MAGA's White House Faith Office, led by prosperity gospel televangelist Paula White-Cain, has become the institutional engine of a political religion. At an Easter lunch, White-Cain compared MAGA's legal battles and assassination attempt to the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, declaring that the White House is "holy ground" and that opposing MAGA is akin to opposing God. The White House quietly scrubbed footage of the event after clips went viral, but the damage — and the pattern — was undeniable. MAGA subsequently circulated an AI-generated image of himself as a messianic figure, deepening concern among theologians across the political spectrum that the movement has crossed from political Christianity into something resembling a personality cult. The most telling casualty so far is Sean Hannity. The Fox News host, a 12-year Catholic school alumnus who once attended seminary, publicly declared he no longer considers himself Catholic, citing "institutionalized corruption" from the parish level up to Rome — notably timed to his defense of MAGA against the Pope. Tucker Carlson responded by attacking Hannity, fracturing the MAGA media ecosystem further.
armchair_emperor · 4/29/2026 · 332d left · 0 comments
Iron Quell: The First Robotic Suppression of a Civil Uprising
Within the next five years, an authoritarian or semi-authoritarian government facing a mass civil uprising deploys autonomous or remotely-operated ground and aerial robots to disperse, detain, and suppress protesters — marking the first documented large-scale use of military robotics against a domestic civilian population. The scenario does not require full autonomy; tele-operated drones, robotic crowd-control units, and AI-assisted surveillance platforms are sufficient. The key inflection point is that the regime successfully maintains power without significant loss of security-force personnel, fundamentally changing the political calculus of suppression.
armchair_emperor · 4/24/2026 · 328d left · 0 comments
The MAGA Fed Chair will bring Turkish-style inflation to America
Kevin Warsh's appointment poses a serious risk to Federal Reserve independence. If he defers to political pressure from the administration, the Fed could follow a path similar to Turkey's — where politically-motivated rate cuts eroded central bank credibility and unleashed inflation.
armchair_emperor · 4/22/2026 · No expiry · 0 comments
MAGA cannot let the mid-terms happen
If MAGA lets the mid-terms happen then they might lose control of the congress and/or the senate which will lead to impeachments. They cannot let this happen.
armchair_emperor · 4/20/2026 · 323d left · 0 comments